Saturday, July 30, 2016

A Tour of Machine Learning Algorithms


There are so many algorithms available and it can feel overwhelming when algorithm names are thrown around and you are expected to just know what they are and where they fit.

In this post I want to give you two ways to think about and categorize the algorithms you may come across in the field.
  • The first is a grouping of algorithms by the learning style.
  • The second is a grouping of algorithms by similarity in form or function (like grouping similar animals together).
Both approaches are useful, but we will focus in on the grouping of algorithms by similarity and go on a tour of a variety of different algorithm types.

After reading this post, you will have a much better understanding of the most popular machine learning algorithms for supervised learning and how they are related.

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A cool example of an ensemble of lines of best fit. Weak members are grey, the combined prediction is red.
Plot from Wikipedia, licensed under public domain.
Algorithms Grouped by Learning Style

There are different ways an algorithm can model a problem based on its interaction with the experience or environment or whatever we want to call the input data.

It is popular in machine learning and artificial intelligence textbooks to first consider the learning styles that an algorithm can adopt.

There are only a few main learning styles or learning models that an algorithm can have and we’ll go through them here with a few examples of algorithms and problem types that they suit.

This taxonomy or way of organizing machine learning algorithms is useful because it forces you to think about the the roles of the input data and the model preparation process and select one that is the most appropriate for your problem in order to get the best result.

Let’s take a look at four different learning styles in machine learning algorithms:

Supervised Learning

Input data is called training data and has a known label or result such as spam/not-spam or a stock price at a time.

A model is prepared through a training process where it is required to make predictions and is corrected when those predictions are wrong. The training process continues until the model achieves a desired level of accuracy on the training data.

Example problems are classification and regression.

Example algorithms include Logistic Regression and the Back Propagation Neural Network.

Unsupervised Learning

Input data is not labelled and does not have a known result.

A model is prepared by deducing structures present in the input data. This may be to extract general rules. It may through a mathematical process to systematically reduce redundancy, or it may be to organize data by similarity.

Example problems are clustering, dimensionality reduction and association rule learning.

Example algorithms include: the Apriori algorithm and k-Means.

Semi-Supervised Learning


Input data is a mixture of labelled and unlabelled examples.

There is a desired prediction problem but the model must learn the structures to organize the data as well as make predictions.

Example problems are classification and regression.

Example algorithms are extensions to other flexible methods that make assumptions about how to model the unlabelled data.

Overview

When crunching data to model business decisions, you are most typically using supervised and unsupervised learning methods.

A hot topic at the moment is semi-supervised learning methods in areas such as image classification where there are large datasets with very few labelled examples.

Algorithms Grouped By Similarity

Algorithms are often grouped by similarity in terms of their function (how they work). For example, tree-based methods, and neural network inspired methods.

I think this is the most useful way to group algorithms and it is the approach we will use here.

This is a useful grouping method, but it is not perfect. There are still algorithms that could just as easily fit into multiple categories like Learning Vector Quantization that is both a neural network inspired method and an instance-based method. There are also categories that have the same name that describes the problem and the class of algorithm such as Regression and Clustering.

We could handle these cases by listing algorithms twice or by selecting the group that subjectively is the “best” fit. I like this latter approach of not duplicating algorithms to keep things simple.

In this section I list many of the popular machine leaning algorithms grouped the way I think is the most intuitive. It is not exhaustive in either the groups or the algorithms, but I think it is representative and will be useful to you to get an idea of the lay of the land.

Please Note: There is a strong bias towards algorithms used for classification and regression, the two most prevalent supervised machine learning problems you will encounter.

If you know of an algorithm or a group of algorithms not listed, put it in the comments and share it with us. Let’s dive in.

Regression Algorithms


Regression is concerned with modelling the relationship between variables that is iteratively refined using a measure of error in the predictions made by the model.

Regression methods are a workhorse of statistics and have been cooped into statistical machine learning. This may be confusing because we can use regression to refer to the class of problem and the class of algorithm. Really, regression is a process.

The most popular regression algorithms are:
  • Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR)
  • Linear Regression
  • Logistic Regression
  • Stepwise Regression
  • Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)
  • Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS)
Instance-based Algorithms


Instance based learning model a decision problem with instances or examples of training data that are deemed important or required to the model.

Such methods typically build up a database of example data and compare new data to the database using a similarity measure in order to find the best match and make a prediction. For this reason, instance-based methods are also called winner-take-all methods and memory-based learning. Focus is put on representation of the stored instances and similarity measures used between instances.
The most popular instance-based algorithms are:
  • k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN)
  • Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ)
  • Self-Organizing Map (SOM)
  • Locally Weighted Learning (LWL)
Regularization Algorithms


An extension made to another method (typically regression methods) that penalizes models based on their complexity, favoring simpler models that are also better at generalizing.

I have listed regularization algorithms separately here because they are popular, powerful and generally simple modifications made to other methods.

The most popular regularization algorithms are:
  • Ridge Regression
  • Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)
  • Elastic Net
  • Least-Angle Regression (LARS)
Decision Tree Algorithms


Decision tree methods construct a model of decisions made based on actual values of attributes in the data.

Decisions fork in tree structures until a prediction decision is made for a given record. Decision trees are trained on data for classification and regression problems. Decision trees are often fast and accurate and a big favorite in machine learning.

The most popular decision tree algorithms are:
  • Classification and Regression Tree (CART)
  • Iterative Dichotomiser 3 (ID3)
  • C4.5 and C5.0 (different versions of a powerful approach)
  • Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID)
  • Decision Stump
  • M5
  • Conditional Decision Trees
Bayesian Algorithms

Bayesian methods are those that are explicitly apply Bayes’ Theorem for problems such as classification and regression.

The most popular Bayesian algorithms are:
  • Naive Bayes
  • Gaussian Naive Bayes
  • Multinomial Naive Bayes
  • Averaged One-Dependence Estimators (AODE)
  • Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)
  • Bayesian Network (BN)
Clustering Algorithms


Clustering, like regression describes the class of problem and the class of methods.

Clustering methods are typically organized by the modelling approaches such as centroid-based and hierarchal. All methods are concerned with using the inherent structures in the data to best organize the data into groups of maximum commonality.

The most popular clustering algorithms are:

k-Means
k-Medians
Expectation Maximisation (EM)
Hierarchical Clustering
Written by: Jason Brownlee  (countinue)

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Thursday, July 28, 2016

Machine Learning for Programmers: Leap from developer to machine learning practitioner

(a.k.a. my answer to the question: “how do I get started in machine learning?“)
I’m a developer. I have read a book or some posts on machine learning. I have watched some of the Coursera machine learning course. I still don’t know how to get started…
Does this sound familiar?


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Frustrated with machine learning books and courses?
How do you get started in machine learning?
Photo by Peter Alfred Hess, some rights reserved
The most common question I’m asked by developers on my newsletter is “how do I get started in machine learning?“. I honestly cannot remember how many times I have answered it.

In this post I lay out all of my very best thinking on this topic.
  • You will discover why the traditional approach to teaching machine learning does not work for you.
  • You will discover how to flip the entire model on its head.
  • And you will discover my simple but very effective antidote that you can use to get started.
Let’s get into it…

A Developer Interested in Machine Learning

You are a developer and you’re interested in getting into machine learning. And why not? It’s a hot topic at the moment, and it’s a fascinating and fast growing field.

You read some blog posts. You tried to go deeper but the books are dreadful. Math focused. Theory focused. Algorithm focused.

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Sound familiar? Have you tried books, MOOCs,
 blog posts and still not know how to get started in machine learning
?
You try some video courses. You sign-up and make an honest attempt at the oft cited Coursera Stanford Machine Learning MOOC. It’s not much better than the books and detailed blog posts. You can’t see what all the fuss is about, why it is recommended to beginners.

You may have even attempted some small data sets, perhaps an entry level Kaggle competition.

The problem is you can’t connect the theory, algorithms and math from the books and courses to the problem. There’s a huge gap. A gulf. How ARE you supposed to get started in machine learning?

Machine Learning Engineer

When you think forward into the future, once you have captured this elusive understanding of machine learning, what does your job look like? How are you using your newfound machine learning skills in your day-to-day?

I think I can see it. You’re a machine learning engineer. You’re a developer that knows how to “do” machine learning.

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Do you want to transition from developer to a developer that can do machine learning?

Scenario 1: The one-off model

Your boss walks over and says:
Hey, you know machine learning, right? Can you use the customer data from last year to predict which current customers in our sales pipeline are likely to convert? I want to use it in a presentation to the board next week…
I call this the one-off model.

The problem is well defined by your boss. She gives you the data, which is small enough to look at and understand in MS Excel if you had to. She wants accurate and reliable predictions.

You can deliver. And more importantly, you can explain all the relevant caveats on the results.

Scenario 2: The embedded model

You and your team are collecting requirements from stakeholders on a software project. There is a requirement for the user to be able to freehand draw shapes in the software, and for the software to figure out which shape it is and turn it into a crisp unambiguous version and label it appropriately.

You quickly see that the best (and only viable?) way to solve this problem is to devise and train a predictive model and embed it in your software product.

I call this the embedded model. There are variations (such as whether the model is static or updated, and whether it is local or called remotely via an API), but that’s just detail.

What’s key in this scenario is that you have the experience to notice a problem that is best solved with a predictive model and the skills to devise, train and deploy it.

Scenario 3: The deep model

You have started a new job and the system you are working on is made up of at least one predictive model. Maintenance and the addition of features to this system require an understanding of the model, its inputs and its outputs. The accuracy of the model is a feature of the software product and part of your job will be to improve it.

For example, as a part of regular pre-release system testing, you must demonstrate that the accuracy of the model (when validated on historical data) has the same or better skill than the previous version.

I call this the deep model. You will be expected to build a deep understanding of one specific predictive model and use your experience and skill to improve and verify its accuracy as part of your routine duties.

The Developer That “Does” Machine Learning

These scenarios give you a glimpse at what it’s like to be a developer that knows how to do machine learning. They’re realistic because they are all variations on scenarios I’ve been in or tasks that I have had to complete.

All three of these scenarios make one thing very clear. Although machine learning is a fascinating area, to a developer machine learning algorithms are just another bag of tricks, like multi-threading or 3d graphics programming. Nevertheless, they are a powerful group of methods that are absolutely required for a specific class of problem.

Traditional Answer To: “how do I get started?

So how do you get started in machine learning?

If you crack a book on machine learning seeking an answer to this question, you’ll get a shock. They start with definitions and move on to mathematical descriptions of concepts and algorithms of ever increasing complexity.

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The traditional answer to the question “how do I get started in machine learning” is bottom-up.
Definitions and mathematical descriptions are clear, succinct and often unambiguous. The thing is, they are dry, boring and require the requisite mathematical background to parse and interpret.

There is a reason why machine learning is often taught as a graduate level subject at university. It’s because this “first principles” way of teaching the subject requires years of prerequisites to understand.

For example, it is advisable that you have a good footing in:
  • Statistics
  • Probability
  • Linear Algebra
  • Multivariate Statistics
  • Calculus
This gets worse if you stray slightly into some of the more exotic and interesting algorithms.

This bottom-up and algorithm fixated approach to machine learning is pervasive.

Online courses, MOOCs and YouTube videos mimic the university approach to teaching machine learning. Again, this is great if you have the background or you’ve already put in your half-to-full-decade of studies to earn those higher degrees. It does not help your average developer.

If you skulk off to a question and answer forum like Quora, StackExchange or Reddit and meekly ask how to get started, you’re slapped with the same response. Often this response comes from fellow developers who are just as lost. It’s one big echo chamber of the same bad advice.

It’s no wonder that honest and hard working developers seeking to do the right thing think they have to go back to school and get a Masters or PhD before they feel qualified to “do” machine learning.

The Traditional Approach is DEAD WRONG!

Think about this bottom-up approach to teaching machine learning for a second. It’s rigorous and systematic and sounds like the right idea on the surface. How could it be wrong?

Bottom-Up Programming (or, how to kill-off budding programmers)

Imagine you’re a young developer. You’ve picked up some of this and that language and you’re starting to learn how to create standalone software.

You tell friends and family that you want to get into a career where you get to program every day. They tell you that you need to do a degree in computer science before you can get a job as a programmer.

You sign-up and start a computer science degree. Semester after semester you are exposed to more and more esoteric algebra, calculus and discrete math. You use antiquated programming languages. Your passion for programming and building software wavers.

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The traditional approach to getting started in machine learning has a gap on the path to practitioner.
Perhaps you somehow make it to the other side. Looking back, you realize you were not taught one thing about modern software development practices, languages, tooling, or anything that you can use in your pursuit of creating and delivering software.

See the parallels to the teaching of machine learning?

Thankfully, programming has been around long enough, is popular enough and is important enough to the economy that we have found other ways to give budding young (or old) programmers the skills they need to actually do the thing they want to do – e.g. create software.

It does not make sense to load up a budding programmer’s head with theory on computability or computational complexity, or even deep details of algorithms and data structures. Some of this useful material (the latter on algorithmic complexity and data structures) can come later. Perhaps with focused material – but importantly in the context of an engineer that is already programming and delivering software, not in isolation.

Thankfully we have focused software engineering degrees. We also have resources like codecademy where you learn to program by… yep, actually programming.

If a developer wants to “do” machine learning, should they really have to go and spend a bunch of years and tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars to get the requisite math and higher degrees?

The answer is of course not! There is a better way.

A Better Approach

As with computer science, you can’t just invert the model and teach the same material top-down.

The reason is, like a computer science course never making it to the subjects that cover the practical concerns of developing and delivering software, machine learning courses and books fall well short. They stop at algorithms.

You need a top-down approach to machine learning. An approach where you focus on the actual result you want: working real machine learning problems from end-to-end using modern and “best of breed” tools and platforms.

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A better approach to learning machine learning that starts with working machine learning problems end-to-end.

Here’s what I think your yellow brick road looks like.
written by: Jason Brownlee (countinue)

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